Historically, the month of September is a time in which the Jacksonville Beach real estate market starts to see a downturn. This month, as expected, we’re watching the red-hot market of summer begin to fade into a slower autumn market. With this said, we still anticipate another increase in activity before the holidays bring the market to a lull.
The Jacksonville Beach Real Estate Market Update for September 2023 is revealing a 2.8-month absorption rate, that will likely continue to shift up into the 3- or 3.5-month range. More importantly, median sales prices are going down as inventory creeps up. Home affordability is declining, and inventory is rising. Many Florida residents are out of work, particularly tech workers.
Prices are hanging high in Jacksonville Beach, and this is resulting in a shortage of sales. When homes are selling, it’s typically for a price lower than the original list price. Due to a shortage of sales, every closing is making an impact on the graphs that real estate professionals compose to see trends. Each closing during this sluggish market makes an impact on the numbers.
Mortgage Interest Rates
Mortgage interest rates are still above 7%, creating another barrier for potential home buyers. For the question that we get asked so often—when are rates going to drop? —there isn’t much good news. It will likely be 2025 before rates get back down to the 3% range. In fact, we anticipate another rate hike before the end of this year. Typically, the Feds over inflate their rate increase longer than it should be resulting in an eventual deeper drop than expected because of the rates being held too high for too long. When rates are falling, investors bet they will stop falling sooner than they do; when rates are rising, investors bet they will stop rising sooner than they do. For now, the Fed Dot Plotsees rates peaking at 5.6% this year.
Fluid Realty
Although high interest rates are a significant deterrent for home buyers, the reality is that when rates drop, home prices will escalate. A mortgage can be re-financed when interest rates drop; the price of a home will not change after closing. That’s why we advise clients to “Date the rate. Marry the house.” Don’t wait for rates to drop and home prices to rise. If you’re considering buying or selling your home, reach out to Fluid Realty today.
The Fluid Realty Team is Jacksonville’s top real estate group and local boutique brokerage. We provide a full-service experience with the best realtors in the area. Our expertise includes luxury beach real estate within the four Beaches of Jacksonville, FL: Atlantic Beach, Neptune Beach, Jacksonville Beach, and Ponte Vedra Beach.
